Social media: not dead, but evolving
Do you recall the first time you logged into your first [JS1] social media platform? It was probably around 2008 or 2009, in the age of innocence, ye olden days when everyone was listening to Lady Gaga’s “Poker Face” and wearing gladiator sandals.
Social media - mostly MySpace and Facebook - suddenly got us access to our friends' profiles, a virtual public square, and (most importantly) a tool to keep tabs on our exes, all in one place. What a great idea!
Image Credit: 31 Media
Fast forward a few years, and social media has evolved and grown. In 2012, during the Arab Spring, it made its mark also as a significant player that could shape global events. Soon after, social media became an integral part of our lives, with platforms owning our businesses’ marketing channels, having the power to influence elections, and knowing more about us than even our closest family and friends. We had become mere data points, targeted by ads and social media became big, ominous, and scary.
It is probably the fear of sinister intentions of social media platforms with unclear operations that causes experts of various kinds to indulge in wishful thinking and predict the imminent end of social platforms. But, to paraphrase Mark Twain: reports of the death of social media are greatly exaggerated.
The platforms are not dying, but constantly evolving, to better accommodate the needs of our ever-changing global society. Then what are the main directions in which social media will evolve? Here are 6 of our predictions for the near future.
Decentralization
In web2, social media platforms are centralised, meaning that one company controls a server and technology and provides a service to users in exchange for their data. This data is then sold to advertisers, allowing the platform to generate profits for its shareholders, just like Mark once said:
This cycle of extracting more data from more users - in exchange for hosting their profiles - to make more money for shareholders is perpetuated by the central organization, be it companies like Meta, Twitter, Bytedance, you name it. This means that whoever owns and/or controls the platform can introduce whatever rules they want on a whim, yes, we are looking at you, Elon.
In new, decentralized web3-based social media platforms there is no central server or a central organization (like Meta), and things are happening in a Fediverse - a big network of interconnected servers that communicate with each other using open standards protocols, such as ActivityPub, Diaspora Network or OStatus:
What does this mean for users? Firstly, competition between traditional, centralized social media and decentralized ones, where the latter can offer:
No deplatformization - your account is your own property, and no one can ever ban you from a platform. Hacking such an account would [JS2] be much, much more difficult.
Less spam and less fake news - The rapid development of technologies such as ChatGPT means that we can also see exponential growth in online disinformation. However, with user registration via blockchain, it becomes much harder to use AI-powered troll farms on decentralized social networks.
Less ads, more power to creators - Fediverse doesn't collect your personal data, which means it cannot be sold to advertisers. With no data available for advertisers, there will be fewer social media ads. However, marketing on social media doesn't only happen through ads. Influencers will still be present and are likely to benefit greatly from the rise of decentralized social media.
And what social media platforms can we find in Fediverse? Here are some of them that are worth knowing:
To put it simply, Mastodon is a decentralised version of Twitter. One where there are no bored billionaires arbitrarily deciding the fate of users. After the drama resulting from such decisions at Twitter, it is likely the first decentralized microblogging application that mainstream users have heard of.
Minds is a platform built with free speech in mind. It empowers users to express themselves openly while protecting their identities
Decentralized, ethical Instagram. No ads, no algorithms, and full image control. Vision-impaired-user-friendly with a chronological feed. A more open, accessible virtual space!
Experience the tradition of decentralised social media with a platform that's small in size but big in history. This little gem, one of the earliest decentralized social networks, is often viewed as a viable alternative to Facebook. Join a community of users who value privacy and control in their online interactions.
A purpose-driven, decentralized version of Twitter - a social media without self-promotion. As a user you have just one "like" per day, so choose wisely. It supports malaria research and values meaningful contributions..
Experience videos like never before with a decentralized alternative to YouTube and Vimeo. This French non-profit promises to revolutionize how you consume and create video content.
Named after a device for instantaneous transportation in the fictional Hyperion universe, Farcaster is not just a (currently invite-only) decentralized social app, but also a social graph protocol. This protocol enables various applications to connect with each other and with users using decentralized technologies like blockchains, p2p networks, and distributed ledgers.
A few days ago, Meta announced that they are working on a new social media platform - a Twitter clone that would be part of Instagram. This project, codenamed P92, is set to use ActivityPub, a social media protocol already used by Mastodon, which allows users to share content with people on other servers.
This represents a significant departure from the current paradigm of social media, and it seems that Meta is willing to cede some control over content moderation to allow individual servers' users to establish their own rules. However, at present, we know very little about how P92 will function, or whether Meta has a solid plan for monetizing this idea.
Social circles and performative stages distinction
Social media has always had a performative aspect. From the beginning, people used it to create and present a certain image of themselves to their friends, even if it wasn't always entirely truthful. It was a way to show off, impress, and create the illusion of the life they aspired to. Over time, some users started to crave more than just the approval of their friends. Around 2016, the term "influencer" was coined, and became increasingly popular through the years, reflecting the growing trend of people seeking to expand their reach and impact beyond their immediate circle of friends. While initially, internet creators were mocked for their self-centeredness and obsession with their own image, nowadays, influencing is perceived as an aspirational, lucrative profession.
As a result, many new social media platforms have remained social in name only. TikTok, which we discussed in one of our previous articles, is not really a platform that fosters community building. It is more like a compact and performative version of Netflix, where we primarily go to watch bite-sized content from people we don't know personally. In fact, TikTok is often cited as one of the factors contributing to the exodus of users from popular streaming platforms.
Does this mean the end of the social function of social media? No! It has been taken over by new media based on chat functions (like Discord, WhatsApp, Telegram, or Signal) or forums (like Reddit). This division is becoming increasingly evident - it seems that platforms find it difficult to fulfill both social and performative functions simultaneously. As a result, we will likely see a continued and distinct division into two groups of social media:
Stages - those in which communication flows from the creator to the audience, and
Circles - those in which users talk to each other on equal footing.
Immersive social media
Instagram is for photos, Twitter is for text, and YouTube is for videos... right? Definitely not! We can already see how platforms smoothly cross the boundaries between different media, wanting to engage all of our senses so we can consume more content at once. Spotify already allows video to be added to podcasts, Instagram is testing adding sound to photos, and all platforms are going crazy for short vertical videos.
What does this mean for users? Simply more engaging content. For creators - both influencers and brands - this makes reaching a broad audience significantly more challenging. This means that influencers and content creators will become even more professional - there will be fewer people for whom running their own channels is a hobby pursued after hours, and the role of social media manager in many companies will no longer be a trivial task for a smart kid with a good phone for filming videos.
Creating content with high-quality sound, images, interesting subjects, and all bells and whistles will simply become more and more time-consuming and reliant on a much broader skillset, beyond one person’s abilities. We can expect an increase in demand for content creation services (such as video editing), as well as the widespread adoption of VR technology among users. Thus, the imminent increase in the importance of platforms sharing such content will become a game-changer in how much energy we put into content creation.
Eyes on Gamers
If you think that gamers are usually teenage boys and social outcasts, living in their parents’ basements, think again. Here are the stats on Internet users worldwide who play video games on any device as of the 3rd quarter of 2022, devided by age group and gender.
According to this study, quoted by Statista, there are more people in their fifties who play video games than those who don’t, let that sink it.
It's not a secret that the glue needed to build relationships is shared experiences. It's almost certain that our fondest memories of times spent with friends revolve around shared activities. From this perspective, playing video games together can be even more of a social activity than using social media.
Video games are mainstream and the media gamers use become mainstream and social at the same time[JS3] . Discord is the first and so far, the most important example of this. An application that was supposed to facilitate communication among gamers has become mainstream.
While not all elements of gaming culture are bound to repeat Discord’s success, it’s important not to underestimate the gaming community, and to keep a close eye on what is currently trending in the world of video games.
If you think that gamers are usually teenage boys and social outcasts, living in their parents’ basements, think again. Here are the stats on Internet users worldwide who play video games on any device as of 3rd quarter 2022, by age group and gender.
According to the study, more people in their fifties do play video games than don’t, let that sink it.
It's not a secret that the cement needed to build relationships is shared emotions. If we think about our close friends, it's almost certain that we can recall moments we experienced together that made our hearts beat faster with excitement. From this perspective, playing video games together can be even more of a social activity than using social media.
Video games are mainstream and the media they use become mainstream and social at the same time. Discord is the first and so far the most important example of this. An application that was supposed to facilitate communication among gamers has become mainstream.
While not all elements of gaming culture are bound to repeat Discord’s success, it’s important not to underestimate the gaming community, and to keep a close eye on what is currently trending in the world of video games.
Superapps
WeChat, Gojek, and Grab - apps that are almost unknown in the West - are powerful players in Asia. What is their secret? They are super apps that meet all the users' needs. Through these apps, users can order groceries, taxis, medicine deliveries, apply for visas at government offices, pay bills, and even book a massage service. In European terms, this is a combination of Booksy, Revolut, Uber, Klarna, Deliveroo, and official government apps for handling office affairs. These lesser-known solutions in the West are a huge potential market and a zero-sum game - whoever can combine different services in one app in an accessible way first, wins the whole cake.
We are already seeing the first signs of change in social media apps - last year, WhatsApp began testing its WhatsappPay service, and Uber expanded its ride services to include courier and medical transportation. Social media, due to their vast user base, have an obvious potential to invest in features that will allow them to become super apps. The biggest candidate for such transformation is, of course, TikTok, with its potential for developing social commerce on the platform itself, without redirecting users to external stores.
Metaverse
Mark Zuckerberg is so committed to the idea of the Metaverse that he did not hesitate to change the name of his company to one that better reflects the trajectory it is heading [JS4] - an even more virtual reality. Zuckerberg says, he has no regrets, although dreams of the Metaverse have cost him a significant drop in the company’s stock value (by 73% in 2022), which could only be reversed by Meta’s promises to come back down to earth and focus on improving the profitability of the company.
Currently, opinions about the future of the Metaverse, built by Meta or anyone else, range from “Metaverse is dead” to “Metaverse is inevitable.” Our opinion? Both sides are right. The Metaverse will re-emerge sooner or later, but in a different form than the one seen during the exciting months of 2022. It will probably have more to do with an interactive space for creators and a new form of VR-enhanced content than virtual cities full of[JS5] empty advertising spaces that advertisers have been eyeing off.
For now, the whole concept is covered much better in Fortnite or Roblox - the latter has recorded a 25% increase in stock price in recent days, which is a consequence of financial results from Q4 exceeding expectations
Live footage of Metaverse in 2023
However, for Mark Zuckerberg's vision of the Metaverse to become a reality, it's crucial to focus on Oculus, which Meta acquired in 2014. Only when virtual reality headsets become ubiquitous and the environment in which users interact is appealing and filled with immersive content, will the Metaverse truly come alive.
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